Final Fractions 2026 - Contenders - Q & A Derbyologist
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Renegade, Commandment, Further Ado and Intrepido are he ones except Intrepido had a breeze that was too fast
Final Fractions 2026. We go over the 2026 Kentucky Derby Contenders that qualify on the final three furlongs. Historical record of Final Fraction Qualifiers, Fastest Qualifiers by Year. Kentucky Derby 2026 Handicapping.
Final Fractions Contenders and Qualifiers for the 2026 Kentucky Derby. We look at how to calculate Final Fractions, the Final Fractions Non-qualifiers for 2026. Fastest Final Fractions Qualifiers 2026.
no 2 year old winners for a long time, Potente, emerging market, chief wallabee and the puma
Link for Final Fractions Guide
https://tinyurl.com/FF26Derby
Tapit has not sired a Derby winner so toss Right to Party, Danan Bourbon, The Puma, silent tactic and Chief Wallabee
Link to Historical Final Fractions Spreadsheet and 2026 Final Fractions Contenders
https://tinyurl.com/FFDerby26CJ
Every year i get frustrated When certain TRACKS DONT SHOW THE GPS STATS... TRAKUS was great and Always showed Slugs.. but there was always mystery horses with no gps stats.. Same with EQUIBASE.. But im still glad Equibase has their GPS and other stats.. Fun Times coming up.. 😁
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How do you go about adjusting for the one turn in the Virginia Derby? How many seconds is that worth?
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12.95/37.53 Further Ado
12.31/36.52 Commandment
11.84/36.57 Renegade
12.85/37.72 So Happy
13.00*/38.06* Fulleffort
12.68/36.89 The Puma
12.56/36.89 Chief Wallabee
12.51/37.43 Silent Tactic
12.51/37.50 Emerging Market
13.29/38.78 Albus
13.31/38.36 Potente
12.62/37.72 Pavlovian
12.96/38.61 Right to Party
11.92/36.14 Incredibolt
12.37/37.18 Golden Tempo
13.01/38.50 Ottinho
12.35/37.82 Class President
13.17*/38.86* Stark Contrast
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In an admittedly crude attempt to try and determine UAE Derby and Dubai World Cup fractions, I froze the replay at the points the distance remaining counted down each hundred meters. Here’s the times I came up with for UAE Derby: 14.4, 25.3, 37.0, 48.5, 112.8, 125.5, 138.7, 145.4, 152.3, and a final time of 159.19.
I wanted to do a comparison with Dubai World Cup. Unfortunately, for whatever reason, the broadcast did not show the meter counter for Magnitude’s race. They did, however, have the distance remaining markers superimposed for each hundred of the final 400 meters. Here’s those:
1:38.2 (one mile), 1:44.7, 151.1, 157.7, and a final time of 2:04.38.
Randy Moss on a recent podcast estimated around a “107 to 108” for Magnitude. Moss was not asked about the UAE Derby.
Just by comparing the 1 3/16 times of the two races (1:59.19 and 1:57.7), and based on Moss’s estimate of DWC, my guess is Wonder Dean would have garnered around a 90 BSF.
craigj@derbyologist.com
This crop of 3 y/o's have not been that great yet..i agree fla derby was the best prep race .i need to see more on the japan horses .
More User Perspectives
Confused as to why So Happy was left off the fastest 3/8's chart in first video. Would you please explain?
Where can I get more info on internal fractions. That Downey used to do? Seems I have misplaced that formula.
Thank you for giving us another tool to use.
Hope I am signed in for everything.. ty again
Sorry, I missed the live. Enjoy your work. In my opinion, I don't think the Beyer speed figure of 106 for Further Ado is accurate. I have heard accounts of 20mph tailwinds in the stretch run during the race. If true the final 3F would have been wind aided. No thanks, I'm tossing....
@markgarcia123Hi guy hope all is well Elaine Acosta 😀 here,good to see 👀 you God bless all.
@elaineacosta2621 for 6 stat on the 1 1/16th final prep does not sound that bad, esp with the price on charasmatic that is huge +EV why would you suggest that is a bad factor for winners and value?
@INNthehouseOne-word name Derby winners
2025: Sovereignty
2023: Mage
2021: Mandaloun
2020: Authentic
2018: Justify
2016: Nyquist
2013: Orb
2006: Barbaro
2005: Giacomo
2001: Monarchos
1999: Charismatic
1996: Grindstone
1990: Unbridled
1987: Alysheba
1986: Ferdinand
1984: Swale
1978: Affirmed
1974: Cannonade
1973: Secretariat
1963: Chateaugay
1962: Decidedly
1956: Needles
1955: Swaps
1954: Determine
1950: Middleground
1949: Ponder
1948: Citation
1946: Assault
1944: Pensive
1941: Whirlaway
1940: Gallahadion
1939: Johnstown
1938: Lawrin
1935: Omaha
1934: Cavalcade
1927: Whiskery
1923: Zev
1922: Morvich
1918: Exterminator
1915: Regret
1913: Donerail
1912: Worth
1911: Meridian
1910: Donau
1909: Wintergreen
1905: Agile
1904: Elwood
1899: Manuel
1898: Plaudit
1895: Halma
1894: Chant
1893: Lookout
1892: Azra
1891: Kingman
1890: Riley
1889: Spokane
1884: Buchanan
1883: Leonatus
1882: Apollo
1881: Hindoo
1880: Fonso
1876: Vagrant
1875: Aristides
Since 1926: 36/100 equals 36%.
Since 1875: 63/151 equals 41.7%
Many times, one-word names appeared B2B or 3, 4, 5 consecutive.
The one-word names we have this year….
Renegade
Commandment
Potente
Incredibolt
Fulleffort
Pavlovian
Albus
Ottinho
If they make it in…
Intrepido
Grittiness
Talking
Universe
Nearly
Ocelli
My favorite 3YO in terms of looks: GREAT WHITE. I love those 17 hand monsters.
Forego: 17h to 17.1h
Rock Hard Ten: 17.3h
Zenyatta: 17.2h
Great White: 17.25h
Into Mischief is at it again with another KYD winner. Don’t forget Potente. The forgotten son of Into Mischief. The name Renegade or Commandment right next to Sovereignty does sound more fitting.
@derbyologist like i asked on yr fraction show. Some fir example horse racing nation has full effort at 13.1 or pont 2.
@CarlCarlson-k5pBest show on handicapping….ever
@Rickytripp-y2kPlaying the Name Game
Let’s go back to 1960 only because I love the name, Kauai King. Ah, screw that. Let’s go back to 1926. I only want to list 100 names. Sorry, Sir Barton.
2025: Sovereignty
2024: Mystik Dan
2023: Mage
2022: Rich Strike
2021: Mandaloun
2020: Authentic
2019: Country House
2018: Justify
2017: Always Dreaming
2016: Nyquist
2015: American Pharoah
2014: California Chrome
2013: Orb
2012: I'll Have Another
2011: Animal Kingdom
2010: Super Saver
2009: Mine That Bird
2008: Big Brown
2007: Street Sense
2006: Barbaro
2005: Giacomo
2004: Smarty Jones
2003: Funny Cide
2002: War Emblem
2001: Monarchos
2000: Fusaichi Pegasus
1999: Charismatic
1998: Real Quiet
1997: Silver Charm
1996: Grindstone
1995: Thunder Gulch
1994: Go for Gin
1993: Sea Hero
1992: Lil E. Tee
1991: Strike the Gold
1990: Unbridled
1989: Sunday Silence
1988: Winning Colors
1987: Alysheba
1986: Ferdinand
1985: Spend a Buck
1984: Swale
1983: Sunny's Halo
1982: Gato Del Sol
1981: Pleasant Colony
1980: Genuine Risk
1979: Spectacular Bid
1978: Affirmed
1977: Seattle Slew
1976: Bold Forbes
1975: Foolish Pleasure
1974: Cannonade
1973: Secretariat
1972: Riva Ridge
1971: Canonero II
1970: Dust Commander
1969: Majestic Prince
1968: Forward Pass
1967: Proud Clarion
1966: Kauai King
1965: Lucky Debonair
1964: Northern Dancer
1963: Chateaugay
1962: Decidedly
1961: Carry Back
1960: Venetian Way
1959: Tomy Lee
1958: Tim Tam
1957: Iron Liege
1956: Needles
1955: Swaps
1954: Determine
1953: Dark Star
1952: Hill Gail
1951: Count Turf
1950: Middleground
1949: Ponder
1948: Citation
1947: Jet Pilot
1946: Assault
1945: Hoop Jr.
1944: Pensive
1943: Count Fleet
1942: Shut Out
1941: Whirlaway
1940: Gallahadion
1939: Johnstown
1938: Lawrin
1937: War Admiral
1936: Bold Venture
1935: Omaha
1934: Cavalcade
1933: Brokers Tip
1932: Burgoo King
1931: Twenty Grand
1930: Gallant Fox
1929: Clyde Van Dusen
1928: Reigh Count
1927: Whiskery
1926: Bubbling Over
The only names I don’t care for:
Hoop Jr.
Lil E. Tee
Smarty Jones (tolerable enough)
Super Saver
I’ll Have Another
Mystik Dan
94% of the last 100 Derbies had decent enough names. I even like the pun in Funny Cide.
Big Brown had everyone thinking UPS. “What can Brown do for you?” Didn’t love the name but his talent made me forget about it. We’ve done better with human first names than last names. Names like Giacomo, Sting’s son. Ferdinand in 1986. Two Phil’s almost won it in 2023. Mystik Dan in 2024. I’m aware we did get Nyquist (Gustav’s last name 🏒) in 2016. We did have names like George Smith, Omar Khayyam, and Paul Jones win it.
One of my favorite Derby names will always be Alysheba. I used to think that was a filly’s name. I didn’t know Alysheba was a male until months later. Favorite call from Durkin was for the 1987 BC Classic. “THE TWO DERBY WINNERS HIT THE WIRE TOGETHER!!!” My all-time favorite Derby name is Citation followed by Kauai King. For recent times: Justify. Simple like Assault and Affirmed.
I did like that horse, I’ll Have Another. I followed him in spring of 2012 before his injury before Belmont. I was more into Creative Cause. I’m aware of the “I’ll have another” cookies thing. I just didn’t think his name fit for a Derby winner. And Sierra Leone and Forever Young had much better names than Mystik Dan. The last three good names are Justify, Authentic, and Sovereignty. Authentic sounded way more fitting than Tiz the Law.
Maximum Security or Country House? That’s a push. MS sounds like a prison. CH sounds cozy like Ricky and Lucy Ricardo getting a country house in Connecticut. Medina Spirit or Mandaloun? I will give it to Mandaloun even though he will always be the bogus winner to me of the 2021 Derby. Shame we never got The Pamplemousse to run in the 2009 SAD. Love his name! Most exciting speedy gray since Holy Bull.
Ranking the best names for the ‘26 Derby
Renegade
Commandment
So Happy
The Puma
Incredibolt
Pavlovian
Too bad Paladin didn’t make it. Dungeons & Dragons fans would be all over that name. Silent Tactic, Emerging Market, Golden Tempo, and Class President are just bleh names. Last year, the two best names did go 1-2. I think Sandman is a cool name but it doesn’t fit a KYD winner like Sovereignty or Journalism does. Sovereignty is a very fitting Derby name. Regal and majestic. I guess it’s between Renegade or Commandment. I am not buying Further Ado’s Blue Grass win.
Incredibolt did win two races at CD but his Street Sense win was over 1:44. When Sovereignty won it in 2024, it was in the 1:43s. And when Further Ado won the KY JC Classic last year, it’s in the 1:43s. Incredibolt does’t have much class when he ran off the board against Nearly in the Holy Bull. It’s similar after watching Sovereignty trounce Sandman in the ‘24 Street Sense. I knew Sandman was levels below Sov and Journalism even after he won the AR Derby.
95 Beyer minimum
https://amp.horseracingnation.com/news/85_of_recent_Kentucky_Derby_winners_meet_this_standard_123
Final fractions
https://amp.horseracingnation.com/news/Kentucky_Derby_12_horses_stand_out_in_Final_Fractions_Theory_123
^ All pointing to Renegade or Commandment, doesn’t it? Two of the top 3 fastest. Incredibolt doesn’t have enough class. He’s looking like Secretariat beating crap in the Virginia Derby. I hate Mike Repole but I may have no choice but to bet on his horse. Repole might finally win it.
Further Ado is only 12th for fastest final 1/8ths and tied for 8th for fastest final 3/8ths. I’m telling y’all, he’s fool’s gold. He will be overbet thanks to that 106 Beyer. And I was a supporter of him BEFORE he lost to The Puma. He’s great at Keeneland and average to decent everywhere else.
$60 Win: Commandment 8 x 60 = 480
$40 Win: Renegade 4 x 40 = 160
Let’s go, Commandment! He probably falls down to 6-1 late with the way I keep glazing him and putting him as my No. 1. Further Ado floats up to 7-1. Everyone needs to follow your Commandment as in please all come in 2nd to him. The Lord will provide if you follow your Commandment. Not lead. Follow.
Golden Tempo. ❤
@carlellis7662Great stuff as always. Appreciate you looking for the edges and best takes instead of just relying strictly on the numbers.
@tkell31Regarding the winless stat for mile and 3/16, Mandaloun ran in the mile and 3/16 Louisiana Derby. Mandaloun "won" the Kentucky Derby (didn't cross finish line first). Epicenter and Hot Rod Charlie both finished 2nd in Kentucky Derby and they both won the mile and 3/16 race. I think in the brief time Louisiana has run mile and 3/16, those stats aren't too bad.
@aiblinsbuzzi appreciate your intuitive approach to handicapping. your approach is the intuitive intelligence that all these would be handicappers who rely on AI software as their sole handicapper tool.
@MonicoMallari