Iran’s Tenacious Regime and the Future of the Gulf | Foreign Affairs Interview
Video Overview & Insights
For about two weeks, U.S. and Israeli forces have bombarded Iran. They have targeted Iranian military and nuclear sites. They have slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and other top Iranian officials. They have even sunk an Iranian vessel deep in the Indian Ocean. Iran has responded by hurling missiles and drones at targets in the Gulf, Israel, and elsewhere in what has become a surprisingly broad and sustained retaliation. U.S. President Donald Trump has promised Iranians some kind of regime change, but that will not be so simple. Iran has declared Khamenei’s son Mojtaba to be his successor, a move that seems to double down on the old order.
Zionist regime has no time.
In this two-part episode, Senior Editor Daniel Block spoke with leading experts on the course of the war, the future of the Iranian regime, and the upheaval and uncertainty in the wider region.
First, Afshon Ostovar, an associate professor of national security affairs at the Naval Postgraduate School, explored how the Islamic Republic has been reshaped by the attacks—and what it would take to truly dismantle the regime. Then, Sanam Vakil, the director of the Middle East and North Africa program at Chatham House, discussed the widening remit of the war and how it has upended the assumptions and hopes of many Gulf countries.
This analysis is significantly flawed and misinformed. The simple question is if Iran’s might has been significantly depleted, then why hasn’t the US been able to reopen the strait of Hormuz? And how has Iran been able to execute so many significantly more attacks against Us and Israel military assets vs. what the US and Israel have been hitting which are all civilian facilities in Iran. Iran’s military assets are underground and remain far from being depleted
Block spoke with Ostovar and Vakil on Tuesday, March 10. Both agree that while much remains uncertain about the trajectory of the war, it is already remaking Iran, the Gulf, and the wider Middle East in dangerous ways.
You can find sources, transcripts, and more episodes of The Foreign Affairs Interview at https://www.foreignaffairs.com/podcasts/foreign-affairs-interview.
You mean we’ve painted ourselves into a Vietnam corner?
More User Perspectives
Conditions for US is pathetic on the long run. Congratulations on living your own delusions.
@Mns-p7v"REGIME"! 😆 This whole discourse is over!
@pooyaimani7437Interesting point about young mid-rank officials who don't get to drink at the well of oil riches like the more senior members. The survival of the Republican Guard is probably more about preserving access to billions in corruption wealth, versus preserving the so-called "Islamic Republic."
@kmlgraphExcellent interviews, Thank you.
@WK-spaceThe Iranian regime will not last this war. How is that for 'True Promise'?
@I_LemaireOMG! The man being interviewed does not know how many of Montaba Khamenei's family were killed, nor who they are. 😮 😂
@davidkehler5669Defenders of the Islamic Republic gloss over the domestic and international terror, misogyny and death the regime has perpetrated for decades. Treating it as a legitimate regime invariably leads to impoverished analysis.
@cmiksee1932It's always 30% just like here... its the MAGA Regime. There it's the ayatollas.... same. Phkn. Shlt.
@har839733:07 ‘My children have just been killed in an American airstrike along with all their friends and teachers - how discombobulating!’
@worthycawdor1824Why is israel still friendly with russia
@classactionsteve9:15 "What if the US and Israel keep killing Iran leaders? If they kill enough people, you will end up with a candidate that is different. We will just killing these guys until they pick someone we like."
We have criticized other nations for killing their political opponents (Khasogghi killed by Saudi, Sikh separatists exiled in Canada killed by India, Navalny, Nemtsov, Litvinenko, Magnitsky killed by Russia).
Looks like the US is no different from the others.
Consistently great episodes. I have to find time to read these articles.
@haldokanxThe first guy has little appreciation for Iran’s planning and capacity for asymmetrical warfare. They will block Hormuz for as long as they want.
@kreed4So Gulf countries thought Iran was a destabilizing force in the Middle East, but didn’t do anything to help rein in Hamas or Hizbollah over the past 25 years, so what did the Gulf countries think was going to happen after October 7? Basically, they didn’t really care if Israel was being attacked, it didn’t affect them an the safety and stability of the Israeli people were not their concern. Maybe they should rethink that part of their strategy.
@WitchKingofAngmarRidesIran is a disintegrating regime. The worst intervention is one that could increase the credibility of the regime.
With no intervention and no war the regime has five years before the people destroy it from the streets.
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@robertprawendowski2850WTF are we as Americans talking about Isreal, and best for Isreal and what Israel can choose to do it what it wants blah blah blah... I'm fkn sick of paying for Israel. Wtf are we???
@har8397Clearly biased analysis. These analysts have blinders on.
@GabrielS-f9q32: “Difficult to know how people are living through this moment”, “internet is out” - FA should find someone who is much better connected on the ground.
@eriksyringIran picked the fight??? And this statement isn’t challenged?
@garysandiegoThis guy seems a bit delusional. I don’t see how Iran can look at this war and think backing away from a nuke is the correct path. The lesson is that ONLY a nuclear weapon will protect the regime. You might note that Trump has never mentioned regime change in North Korea. There is no negotiating with Trump because he doesn’t keep his promises unless he’s too scared to break them. I think if Iran has to starve to get a nuke, they will starve.
@xjcl6469Absolutely no discussion of Hormuz nor asymmetric warfare. A misguided assumption that the U.S. can call a ceasefire whenever it pleases despite Iran already rejecting ceasefire efforts. Totally ignorant irresponsible analysis.
@samz1950Tenacious is a terrible word to use to describe the regime.
@RoiddzAmazing how he has no credible sources of how many people oppose the government of Iran. Yet says it’s a majority.
@Bainboys242Mr. Ostovar, the drone "program" is not broken because it is now a "garage industry." (Prepare for Gulf oil facilities to get hammered.)
This new leader is the worst possible, but your flippant remark about his mother being "at least one of his (father's) wives," is just a display of your presumptive bias.
I think I'll jump forward to the next interview.
The selection of the Supreme Leader and the broad based attacks are not a strategic move, they are default outcomes.
@juhoarens3122Great Analysis, Balanced and Neutral
@jayantachaudhuri3397One of the most informative interviews I've yet heard on the topic
@zarkjI think always important to remember that FA is very much "establishment" US foreign policy, interpret it like a view into what many US foreign policy people are hearing/thinking
@chaezkaI think they will rebuild and go for a nuclear weapon.
@AlexbeseThis Ostovar guy acuses Iran of hubris, even irony can have limits bro XD
@meneersasIs it really going to take Iran that long to restore some kind of deterrence? China has helped them build military weapons before and likely will again. Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis are likely to still exist and can do a lot with expensive or cheap weapons.
@lonecandle5786Im sorry this guest is insane. Iran was "courting" a fight with the US and Israel? that is fundamentally false. Completely bias zionist logic.
@5kribblesWhy doesn't the guest mention that Iran already compromised on stockpiling enriched uranium before they were attacked, but Israel wanted to attack anyway. Why doesnt the guest mention that Ali Khamenei made a fatwa against nuclear weapons
Instead he say "maybe now they're willing to compromise" and "maybe now they're willing to give up nuclear weapons"
Excellent discussion. Thank you
RS. Canada
Until the USA gets rid of their grifting, knuckle dragging criminal BABOON of a President in the White House, America has nothing to say to the world.
@johndeacon1496Pretty basic information
@vPsuYmqwR2eqgTAXUhXcT5mqLzrjJ6"Turns out Goliath is actually much bigger than stronger than you are..." was the point I started to lose faith in this episode.
No credence paid to the fact that any Iranian regime will have no way of trusting any party involved in this conflict considering it was at the negotiating table when this conflict was started against it. If the regime continues it needs to reestablish deterrence before any deal can be ratified.
Iran may turn to terrorism?
where has this guy been for the last 50 years? unbelievable.
"Just bomb them until they surrender."
- The good guys of history talking about military operations that definitely succeeded in the past. /s
The Gulf States bought into Trump and are now surprised Trump threw them under the bus? More accurately they were hoping they could bribe Trump enough that he wouldn't throw them under the bus. They learned that Trump throws everyone under the bus!
@masteroftheuniverse2001Also, you forget that it was not only the father of the new leader of Iran who got killed, but also his mother, his brother, his wife, his son etc. He has full moral authority to be as hardline as possible and nobody can complain. Now killing 170 schoolgirls etc. doesn't help the case of Iran's enemies either.
@feedme8991I'm not sure how this interviewee came to the conclusion that Iran picked this fight. Is this what passes for educated opinion?
@Millipede666A moral victory for Iran will not feed and water the citizens
@chrisgurney3968The future of the Gulf is fairly straightforward since Iran has won the war already. The outcome is going to settle the facts on the ground:
1. Any ship traveling the Gulf would have to pay the toll to Iran of $20-$25 per barrel of oil or something connected to deadweight. To save face for everyone there would probably be something like "Gulf rebuilding foundation" in which Iran would be the chairman and other countries may get a seat.
2. No more US military assets in the Gulf. Some token unarmed contingent to save face may remain.
3. Iran develops nuclear weapons.
4. Iraq and Iran form a confederation.
5. Israel, Saudi Arabia and the UAE would undergo economic collapse. High probability of regime change in Bahrain. What happens to others remains to be seen.
6. Possible resurgence of Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt.
When did Iran pick a fight with Israel? Wtf is this guest even talking about?
@phantom1076I love the bit where the neocon gives "advice" to Irsn lol.
"You should just give up all your drones and ballistic missiles, that's the way to compromise with the United States" How did that work out for Iraq, Libya etc?