The AI Selloff Doesn't Match the Data | Top AI Investor Explains

ABSOLUTE CANNOT MISS EPISODE WHEN THIS GUEST IT ON

This guy has serious sinus problems 😮

The final parabolic push now before the bubble bursts.

"If you adjust for that, '28 - '35"; yeah, we'll see.

This guy’s tone of voice is giving “highly leveraged”

I think the issue with the current Vendor Financing is it just takes 1 bad player to take the whole chain down.

the hardware companies will always be fine. it's openai, anthropic, and spacex that are doomed. we will all be getting our AI from the lowest bidder, not them.

Hard to like Gavin’s verbal communication. Can someone just summarize?

I’m about to delete all my trading apps. Spent the last 6 months studying charts, buying courses, and trying to learn the ropes, but I’m still just losing money. Every time I take a trade, the market immediately reverses on me. Being a beginner in this market feels impossible right now. Is anyone actually making consistent money or is this whole thing just a scam? 😭...

He sounds like he's about to cry the whole time... Similar to how Bill Ackman sounded in that Covid interview

Retired at 48, earning 45K biweekly... but honestly, the money isn't even the highlight. What means the most is having a family that stood by me when life was tough. I'm living the life I once prayed for. If you're still fighting your battles, don't lose hope your season is coming.❤️

Im not gunna act like I am a AI guru and I know whats gunna happen but one thing i do know is the negative people in the comments even if they are right on AI will never truly prosper maybe in the short term if AI is a bust but in the long run optimist always beats the pessimist also willing to bet most have under a 6 figure portfolio lol

Why does this guy sound like he's about to cry?😂 I'm smelling desperation from these tech guys, they haven't produced anything groundbreaking in 15 years and they're getting desperate. They're massively betting AI is the answer, but the demand to justify the spend won't be there.

you really should put a "recorded on" timestamp or comment somewhere (commenting on 8/4 after a rip in Q's and SOX)

If I never heard Gavin Baker talk again that would be fine with me.

Literal local market peak on the day this was dropped

.80 speed helped me immensely

As ever, investors their own worst enemies.
Being concerned about hyperscalers taking on debt is asinine - lenders should be chomping at the bit to extend them credit. Have people forgotten why theyre hyper in the first place? Theyre the most profitable entities in the history of the known universe, and thus, the most credit-worthy.
Besides, they already have the forward orders on their books to pay back those loans - theyre practically as safe, or more, as U.S. bonds.

Just off vibes...the manic energy looking for something wrong and not finding it means there are blind assumptions somewhere. Theres always a downside and not noticing until the last minute means.....

I like Gavin but all he does anymore is promote his holdings

his phlegmy voice literally makes me want to spew

i like how they are not wearing headphones, many americans do that in streams, for no real reason at all

Gavin is just looking at GPUs, he seems oblivious to the fact that NVDA GPUs are Ferraris and you don't need Ferraris to go to the grocery store everyday. Custom silicon from GOOGL, META, MSFT, AMZN can do most jobs and cheaper at that. Add in competition from the Chinese and you have an unsustainable 75% NVDA margin. MSFT will be using Kimi-K3 and the savings from that is $600 million! Plus, add the bogey man of when the hyperscalers says no mas on cap-ex and the AI Hardware trade compress big time. This is one of the main reason of the selloff, no one wanted to hang around and find out that one of them might say "no mas". Plus, big investors has already made a ton of money and so they closed their books in June with a massive profit and went shopping somewhere else. It is literally quite that simple Gavin.

Bro fell asleep in a tanning bed before this podcast

I believe that a 'hard economy' is actually the best time to build if you have discipline and the right strategy. Most people spend their time complaining but I believe in execution over excuses. I made a smart move in early 2026, and because I believe in staying the course, I just hit $190k. The momentum is still building, and by the end of this year, it's going to be massive.

The sad truth is that no one has a clue, we all react to what happens as it happens and try to analyse it but can’t predict an iota of what is going to unfold in the markets… content creators are like amplifiers, when times are good they affirm it and try to tell you why it’s good and that it’s looking bullish but then all of a sudden the market turns bearish and everyone affirms it again and try to analyse why… it’s so sad that many are so powerless and it's not about guessing the market's next move; it's about playing it smart and steady during trading...managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 19Bitcoin in the space of a few months.Thanks once again, Marie j Freeman., for your consistent updates and continued support.

Gavin said "you know" 74 times this interview (according to Gemini). I would have picked the over.

One metric that isn’t accelerating. Profit from AI.

Let’s talk about off balance sheet debt. Somewhere between $1-$2 trillion.

I'm a beginner and want to start trading! how can I make high profits having just 5k to invest thank you 🙏

BEAR DOOM #1.
Credit crisis coming due to massive capex "burn"-

Two year contracts for hyperscalers come up soon and range of that re-pricing higher is near 100%. Even cut in half to 50% and this pays for all the capex out of OCF to 28'. Probs comes in somwehere in between but a re-pricing of at least 25% higher makes this a non-issue

BEAR DOOM #2-
Circular financing is running the show-

The bear lens here starts by looking at RPO/Backlogs for clouds---They are huge at $1.5T for top 3 clouds but these commits are out a decade. For AWS the total of frontier labs is max at peak is only 16% of ebitda for AWS and max 15% of revenue when one takes the whole AWS cloud biz. Zitron's analysis only considers "direct AI" revenue which is still in the 1st inning.

It is of course a higher % of "Direct A.I. revenue" but every $1 of AI revenue is pulling an additional $1.5-$2.5B of new AWS cloud revenue at 40% margins. So Ed Zitron's doom case on circular has merit at the surface but if ya know math and the whole picture it has little merit.

BEAR DOOM #3-
Open weight models will kill the frontier models, the hyperscalers and their circular financing.


AWS was designed for a multi-model token gateway world and MSFT Azure is catching up. Little known fact is they are "rooting" for more open wgt traction because
A- Their revenue retention is 95-100% vs. only 60% for frontier models(Amzn AWS pays ~40% partner fees to ANT/OAI)
B- Custom services and AWS attach, margin is much higher on open wgt models than frontier base IaaS compute
C- Open wgt models drive 2-3x volumes
D- They get more negotiating leverage vs. frontier models as the # open wgt. models rise and being the ONE place to optimise your mix of the right models for the right work and payoff

*They WANT a higher open wgt mix as the ROIC is higher but for sure don't want the frontier models to die. Maybe 65-35% mix of open wgt to frontier is optimal so both the frontier revenue commitments(circular) come through AND open wgts drive scale and Jevon's Paradox. But the idea that AWS would risk its entire biz by over-risking on frontier over dependence is not valid in the numbers nor the strategy.

Take a shot every time Gavin says Aham aHaM AhAm Aham Ahhhmmmmm

Actually the posting of this again aligned with a new ATH.

Tell me something negative - nvidia buys its owns stock, has greed to backstop its customers and open ai burns through cash faster than anything on earth…..These forward returns Gavin, are they in the room with us right now?😂

We need an debate with Gavin Baker and Ed Zitron

i love a good pump

This guy should talk to Ed Zitron 😊

HUGE Selloff!