UK 14 day weather: turning very warm and could 30C be reached?

Thanks Brian, at a time when I find the BBC weather app fairly useless and inaccurate, their forecasts, especially on radio 4 shortened to a minute, your presentations are informative and generally accurate. Also no hype, just facts, observations and probability based on extensive data. Keep up the good work.

Good point about the ensembles and especially this time of year when it is notoriously difficult to forecast accurately anyway. MetOffice Alex Deakin again mentioned the challenge of late Spring/early Summer forecasting a few days ago. So often for a significant change the date is kicked down the road but as you say confidence or the late May period has been good for many days.

As a counterpoint I wonder if part of this is picking up the probability that our best May weather often comes in the final third and then the first third of June is often dodgy or at least reliably unreliable as we have witnessed many times.?

Incredible to think its only may imaginr june july if heat continues

I cannot believe the kiwis , walnut and sweet chestnuts survived 3 hard ground frost up here in SW Scotland , so it must have been a `low `radiative` frost i guess . They will like it getting warmer though !

In my experience, when we have any heat in the UK, the forecasts underestimate the temperatures everywhere except the south-east. For example, last summer I saw higher temperatures in the southwest on a regular basis compared to the forecasts. I guess it shows that sometimes these forecasts should sometimes be taken with a pinch of salt