US Housing Inventory Crisis: Its Impact on Home Prices

Garcia Paul White David Young Thomas

Lopez Sharon Hall Margaret Hall Donald

America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. In April alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..

America is currently plagued by the hydra-headed evil duo of inflation and recession. The worst part about this recession is that consumers are racking up credit card debt. In April alone, credit card debt went up 20% while rates have doubled in a year. Inflation is so high that consumers are literally taking debt for basic life necessities. Collapse has indeed begun..

Perez Maria Williams Amy Williams Christopher

Taylor Carol Gonzalez Jeffrey Taylor Jose

Stability is a result of our economy's struggles with uncertainty, housing issues, foreclosures, global volatility, and the pandemic's consequences. To restore stability and promote growth, all sectors must respond quickly to concerns about growing inflation, slow growth, and trade disruptions.

Hall Frank Garcia Timothy Walker Christopher

Lee Patricia Miller Charles Moore Patricia

I sold my home 2020 and I've been dollar cost averaging all year long and I've almost maxed out my reserve, so I'm basically waiting for stocks to fully recover so I can break even, but on the other hand, I've been coming by articles on people who are puIIing off recurring proflts of over $150K wlthln just weeks of trades, what am i doing wrong?

I’m a new dad, I moved to the Bay Area a few years ago and I’m thinking of purchasing a single family home, but with real estate prices currently through the roof, is it still a good idea to buy a home or should I invest in stocks for now and just wait for a housing market correction? I heard Nvidia and AMD are strong buys.

Banks are sneaking into houses ownership and pushing the United States of America out

The banks are planning to torture Americans by forcing them to fight to the death for houses while inflation rises and so do interest rates

Mortgage rates are currently at an all time high since 2000(23 years) and based on statistics on inflation, we might see that number skyrocket further, a 30-year fixed rate was only 5% this time last year, so do I just keep waiting for a housing crash before buying or redirect my focus to the equity market

One thing missing is that new homes are more likely to be in the exurbs, further from workplaces, stores, etc. existing homes are either in first layer suburbs or in the city.

It's not comparing apples to apples even with equal square feet

Doesn't make sense to combine new and existing homes. These are two different markets and people have there sights set on one or the other.

New hones are being built smaller and lower quality than existing homes. Also those seeking space and privacy are likely looking for existing homes.

I’m in Ohio and the housing market here over the last 7-8 years is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. Homes that were bought for $130K in 2015 are now being sold for $590k. I’m talking about tiny, disgusting, poorly built 950 square foot shit boxes in quiet mediocre neighbourhoods. Then you’ve got Better, average sized homes in nicer neighbourhoods that were $300K+ 10 years ago selling for $750k+ now. Wild times.

Great video! For 2024, it’s hard to nail down specific predictions for the housing market is because it’s not yet clear how quickly or how much the Federal Reserve can bring down inflation and borrowing costs without tanking buyer demand for everything from homes to cars.

any idea what proportion of housing has been built solely to accommodate tourists and thus isn't included in the supply ?

If anything, it's likely to get worse. Affordable housing will soon become unaffordable. Therefore, I advise taking action now because today's prices will seem like bargains tomorrow. Until the Fed takes more decisive action, I expect we will see hysteria due to rampant inflation. You can't just halfway rip the band-aid off.

Inventory is climbing in every state.

Prices are too high. With rates not subsidised in ’24 and mortgage still high , currently seeking alternatives to maximize savings without an RV move or taking a loan. I’m seriously contemplating the latter.

Statistics is so useless. The problem with housing is BlackRock, Vanguard, UBS and Fidelity overpaid for residential houses for over a decade after the housing bubble. They are controlling the release of their massive inventories to maintain inflated prices in an attempt to minimize losses. These firms own 80% of everything. That's the problem. They can manipulate anything and residential housing is the easiest one to control because you need a place to live. This bubble, this time, will be everything, not just housing.

amazing video. Told me everything i needed to know

top quality video. Uninmprovable, i would say

I would imagine that there is a massive split between the geographic locations of where the housing supply is mostly new homes versus where the supply consists of existing homes. For example, the sun belt has over-built whereas already more densely populated areas (which have tougher restrictions on new home permits, such as California) most likely have tight housing supply. If that's true (and I'm sure you could check that quite easily) then it seems to be almost completely dispositive without further evidence of the fact that NIMBYism is causing a chunk of the housing affordability crisis.

Ok, so then why has my house sat with only 1 person viewing and absolutely no other interest? Existing home sales dead unless it's "perfect."

The quality of news home is frighteningly poor in my market. A looser supply of new homes may help this problem.

Will you please include multifamily data as well? I think that affects supply and demand too. If there is a huge amount of new multifamily units coming for rent then people who wanted to buy may just rent an apartment

it's a real struggle. With the rising housing prices and stagnant wages, it's becoming increasingly difficult for many to afford homes, let alone save for retirement

would you ever consider this same analysis for specific markets? perhaps the 10-20 largest MSAs, or maybe just Tampa ;)

So long story short, if I am planning to house shop this fall, is that a bad time before things get better or a good time before things get much worse 🙃

Phenomenal channel. keep up the good work.

I was once a statistics major in college, I follow all of the data, but I still am giving up hope because it seems no matter what the data is, prices on everything just keep going up. We live in such a broken system

Central banks will soon be buying houses directly instead of the mortgages to keep the bubble inflated. Then they will come out and talk nonsense about how prices needs to come down and how the low supply is the problem......

If you are trying to sell a house. You already missed the top. Better sell it as fast as you can !!

Can you compare this to population please. Especially with the increased migration due to refugees.

"Crisis", your title says there is an inventory crisis, but it would seem right now we are actually heading towards normal. In your video, you don't say anything that would suggest things will overshoot to the other extreme. I love your style of video and the presentation of data, but your video title is a bit misleading this time.

As for the data itself, the pandemic and historically low interest rates allowed millions to refinance at a level that made selling their home irrational. This clearly has lead to a low supply of existing homes forcing people who need/want a home to buy new construction. Probably the singular more important thing going forward will be Fed rates as they influence leading rates. As lending rates come down it will be more financially feasible for people to sell existing homes financed at ultra-low rates. Also, over time new construction will become existing homes, financed at higher rates, meaning those existing homeowners would feel rate-locked into their homes and free to move about helping normalize the housing market as a whole.

good stuff as always Eric

For every dollar that Trump got for workers ……
Trumps inflation ate up all but .5cents

This does not bode well for young people :(

If you started to do home market analytics, which I love. Could you please look directly into New York housing situation and commerical real estate? From my experience new families have no options but to rent globally. Companies are picking up their tails and I don't see it going forward. As of now, there is a balance of liability to over-leveraged commercial real estate market. What I don't understand is how unrealised losses are not becoming real as the time go by. It is stagnant since 2022, yet nobody is picking up the bill. How is that possible?

Housing inventory confuses people.. you could build 10M new houses and "inventory" won't move in inch if you don't list them for sale.. Its not a matter of a home existing, but rather being on the MLS... so inventory has the ability to spike aggressively.. You don't need to buy a lot, clear trees, hiring masons and framers and plumbers and electricians to add supply.... all you need to do is make a single phone call to a realtor and you just added a house to the "inventory".... and if you are a panicked investor worried about a RE crash maybe you add two homes or 10 or even 1,000 if you are AHFR or some other massive firm that owns 50,000 SFH's... Investors will drop RE like a bad habit if RE enters a clear bear market, especially of bonds remain an attractive alternative investment. And unlike a normal home owner that sells but then adds corresponding demand when they buy a different house, investors could list a million homes for sale, and buy zero.... they can add massive supply but no demand and thats a huge liability for RE if that momentum ever picks up. And investor selling spiking supply and lowering prices will become a negative feedback loop as other investors look to get out and protect equity.

I’ve followed and participated in the SFR market, as a builder, buyer and seller, and owner for SIX (6) decades. While supply lags demand, these factors have little to do with the “affordability crisis” for homes. As a CPA and financial analyst for nearly five plus decades, the problem of affordability is three fold. 1) the USD, as global reserve currency, has lost more value over this period due to profligate Federal spending by Democrat administrations, 2) tax rules for exemption of so-called “gain” on the sale of SFR has NOT been adjusted to account for inflation (this factor is HUGE), and 3) wages have not kept pace with the expectations of younger families due to loss of value in the US currency. The Democrats are not the party of the common person, but rather multi-millionaire elites.

We need to levy a progressive tax onto corporations that own hundreds of thousands of single family homes for the purpose of renting them out. Squeeze them out of the market and then maybe one day I'll be able to own a home

First-time home ownership is OVER. "Starter homes" are over 400k.. Average income is 60k.

Wonder why Millenials and Gen Z are doom spending? Not getting married? Not starting families? Why is civil unrest growing while the wealth gap is larger than it ever has been in history?

This economy priced us out and left us behind before we arrived. This doesn't end well for society at any socioeconomic level..